Menene halin da ake ciki yanzu na matsakaici da ƙananan masana'antun lithium a ƙarƙashin tashin farashin albarkatun ƙasa?

A ranar 10 ga Maristh2022, matsakaicin farashin tabo na lithium carbonate na cikin gida ya yi nasarar karye yuan/ton 500,000, ya karya alamar yuan/ton 500,000 a karon farko.Karfe lithium yana cikin kwanakin ciniki biyu a jere da suka gabata ya yi tsalle yuan 100,000/ton, yanzu matsakaicin farashin tabo ya karye da maki miliyan 3.1.Kuma farashin lithium hydroxide na baturi ya kasance baya bayan lithium carbonate kafin bambance-bambancen farashin kwanan nan tsakanin lithium carbonate da lithium hydroxide shi ma yana raguwa sosai, bisa ga yanayin da har yanzu lithium hydroxide ya yi karanci a yanzu, halin da ake ciki zai iya ci gaba.

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Kuma hauhawar farashin nickel na kwanan nan ya taɓa jawo masana'antar zuwa baturi da motocin lantarki da sauran farashin tattaunawa.Sa'an nan a cikin sama farashin albarkatun kasa kara habaka na yanzu, da lithium masana'antu sarkar na tsakiya da ƙananan masana'antu abin ya shafa?Dangane da bincike da kowane irin labarai a kasuwa, haɗin gwiwa na ƙarshe shine kamar haka:

Dangane da farashin tabo na SMM, tun daga kwata na huɗu na 2020, farashin tabo na lithium carbonate na cikin gida ya fara hauhawa, kuma wannan ba zai iya bambanta da ƙarancin albarkatun ƙarfe na lithium ba.Kasar Sin za ta bukaci shigo da kashi 65 cikin 100 na kayayyakin da ake amfani da su na lithium a shekarar 2021, a cewar kungiyar masana'antun karafa ta kasar Sin.Don haka, yayin da ake samun karuwar sabbin motocin makamashi da makamashi a duniya, a matsayinsa na kasar da ta fi yawan samar da gishiri da batir lithium a duniya, sannu a hankali sabani tsakanin samarwa da bukatar albarkatun lithium a kasar Sin ya karu.

A wannan yanayin, kamfanoni masu tasowa sun kasance ta hanyar tsarin ma'adinan lithium don daidaita samar da albarkatun kasa.Dauki labarai a cikin 'yan kwanakin nan a matsayin misali, Zangge Mining ya bayyana shirin ci gaba na shekaru biyar, matakin farko (2022-2024) ga daukacin kasar baki daya, samar da sinadarin lithium carbonate na qarhan Salt Lake ya tsaya cik;An fara aikin Mamicuo Salt Lake Lithium Project.An sami ci gaba wajen samun sabbin ayyuka, kuma an ƙara sabbin ayyukan Lithium Lake 1 ko 2 tare da tan miliyan 1 na ajiyar lithium carbonate.Mataki na biyu (2025-2027) ya tafi duniya, ci gaba da ci gaba da haɓaka albarkatun ma'adinai da ake da su, manyan alamomin tattalin arziki da fa'idodin matakai biliyan goma, a zahiri sun kai matakin ƙungiyar ma'adinai na farko na duniya;Qarhan Salt Lake samar lithium carbonate samar ya kasance barga;Aikin Lithium na Mamicuo Salt Lake ya tsaya tsayin daka wajen samarwa da fadadawa ta hanyar zabar dama;Wani sabon tafkin lithium ma'adana.

Ganfeng Lithium kuma a baya ya ce za a haɓaka ƙarfin aikin Mt Marion spodumene da faɗaɗawa.Ana sa ran fara aiwatar da aikin fadada aikin a cikin rabin na biyu na 2022, kuma ana sa ran karfin asalin zai karu da kashi 10-15%.Bugu da ƙari, za a ƙara ƙarfin ma'adinan lamba, wanda ake sa ran ya karu da ƙarin 10-15%.Ƙayyadaddun ma'auni na fadada ya dogara da sakamakon ingantawa na tsari da kuma ainihin halin da ake ciki na ma'adinan lamba.

Bugu da kari, a cewar masu lura da kamfanin, aikin Cauchari-Olaroz Salt Lake na kasar Argentina yana shirin sanya tan 40,000 na batirin lithium carbonate a cikin rabin na biyu na 2022. A halin yanzu, kashi na hudu na Mahon Shuka yana gaba da jadawalin. ko kuma za a sanya shi cikin samarwa a watan Yuli.Kayayyakin da aka ƙera za su haɗu da ƙarfin da ake da su na lithium hydroxide.Bugu da kari, aikin Ganfeng Lithium na Marina a Argentina da kuma aikin Sonora a Mexico ana kan gina su kuma za a samar da shi a shekarar 2023.

Jiang Weiping, shugaban Tianqi Lithium da Ganfeng Lithium, wanda ake kira "lithium na maza biyu", ya kuma gabatar da shawarwari don hanzarta bunkasa albarkatun lithium na sichuan a cikin zaman guda biyu na bana.Jiang Weiping ya yi imanin cewa, a halin yanzu, manyan kasashen duniya sun amince da muhimman tsare-tsare na albarkatun lithium, Chile, Bolivia, Mexico da sauran kasashe sun jera albarkatun lithium a matsayin albarkatun kasa kamar albarkatun mai, ci gaba da amfani da albarkatun lithium suna kara yin tsauri. sarrafawa.Don haka, yin saurin bunkasuwar albarkatun Lithium mai koren gaske a kasar Sin yana da matukar muhimmanci wajen tabbatar da tsarin samar da ci gaban masana'antar lithium.

Ba ma haka ba, Jiang Weiping ya kuma yi tsokaci kan albarkatun lithium na lardin Sichuan a halin yanzu, in ji alkaluman kididdigar ma'aikatar albarkatun kasa, Sichuan ya kai kashi 57 cikin 100 na albarkatun ma'adanin lithium na kasar, wanda ke matsayi na daya a kasar.A matsayin wurin ajiya mafi girma na microcrystalline spodumene a kasar Sin, ajiyar Jika a lardin Ganzi na lardin Sichuan yana da babban sikeli da babban tanadin albarkatun lithium, tare da tabbatar da albarkatun lithium ya kai tan 1.887,700.Tabbataccen ma'adanin lithium a ma'adinan Lijiagou spodumene da ke gundumar Jinchuan, lardin Aba, na lardin Sichuan ya kai tan 512,100, kuma albarkatun lithium a yankin Szemuzu sun kai kusan tan 520,000.

Tare da saurin hauhawar farashin kayan masarufi, kamfanoni da yawa na lithium sun shiga sahun ma'adinai don daidaita farashin.A bana kadai, kamfanoni da dama, da suka hada da BYD, da Zijin Mining, da albarkatun ma'adinai na kasar Sin da dai sauransu, sun yi yunƙurin buɗe nasu tsarin na albarkatun lithium.

Kwanan nan, bisa ga farashin tabo na THE SMM, ya nuna cewa, farashin karafa na lithium na baya-bayan nan ya ci gaba da hauhawa, tun daga ranar 15 ga Maris, matsakaicin farashin tabon karfen lithium ya tashi zuwa yuan miliyan 3.134, yuan miliyan 1,739 fiye da na farkon. ya canza zuwa +124.66%.

Tashin farashin kayan masarufi kamar karfen lithium shima yana tafiyar da farashin kayayyaki kamar su lithium carbonate mai darajar batir da lithium hydroxide mai darajar baturi, manyan kayan batura masu wuta.Akwai ma jita-jita cewa a bayan farashin lithium carbonate ya tashi sama da yuan 500,000, matsakaicin farashin masana'antar batirin yana da yawa, yawancin masana'antar batir na cikin gida ba sa sayen kaya, ba sa karɓar umarni don yaƙi da hauhawar farashin lithium carbonate.Dangane da haka, Ningde Times, Eva Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-tech da sauran kamfanonin batir sun ce babu irin wannan yanayin, jadawalin samar da kayayyaki na yau da kullun, na iya ba da garantin wadata ƙasa.Kuma lithium manyan kamfanoni Ganfeng lithium kuma ya ce babu masana'antar batir kada ku sayi halin da ake ciki, layin samarwa yana kan samar da cikakken tallace-tallace jihar.

Baya ga lithium carbonate, batirin wutar lantarki sauran manyan farashin kayan kuma suna da tsada.Farashin lithium hydroxide na baya-bayan nan ya tashi sosai, yana bin lithium carbonate, bambancin farashin ya kara raguwa.A cewar SMM binciken ya nuna cewa, cin gajiyar karuwar odar nickel na batura masu ƙarewa, buƙatun sayan lithium hydroxide ya karu, gabaɗayan samarwa da tsarin buƙatu har yanzu ba a adana su ba, wanda shine dalilin haɓakar haɓakar lithium hydroxide cikin sauri. farashin.Koyaya, idan aka yi la'akari da matakin yanzu na lithium hydroxide da bambance-bambancen farashin lithium carbonate sannu a hankali ya ragu zuwa ingantacciyar kewayo, kuma kwanan nan masana'antun sun kammala shirye-shirye, bin diddigin ko ƙaramin sifili guda ɗaya cika sito, ana tsammanin kasuwar za ta sami lithium hydroxide. ko rage gudu.

Kuma a wani lokaci da ya wuce, rikici tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine ya haifar da hauhawar farashin nickel, wanda ya sa farashin nickel sulfate ya tashi cikin sauri, da zarar farashin abubuwan farko na abubuwa uku ya tashi da 12% -16%.A wancan lokacin, bisa ga lissafin SMM, a cikin mako na 8 ga Maris, karuwar farashin nickel sulfate ya haifar da karuwar farashin kayan abu na 16,000-25,000 yuan/ton, daidai gwargwado na ternary lithium baturi ya karu na 31-47 yuan / KWh, yana ɗaukar 70KWh Motar lantarki a matsayin misali, daidai da farashin batirin motar lantarki ya karu da yuan 2000-3300 a cikin kusan kwanaki biyu!

Kuma a cikin hauhawar farashin nickel, farashin kayan nickel uku ya tashi mafi girma.Dangane da lissafin farashin nickel na LME na yanzu, masana'antar gishiri zuwa matsakaicin farashin samarwa, ana sa ran nickel sulfate zai tashi zuwa yuan 80,000 / ton, farashin batirin keke zai tashi yuan 7000!

Ya kamata a ambata cewa farashin nickel, cobalt, lithium da sauran karafa na ci gaba da hauhawa a halin yanzu, sake yin amfani da batura na sharar gida kuma yana girma zuwa sabon teku mai shuɗi mai girma.Rahotanni daga kafafen yada labarai masu alaka da juna sun nuna cewa, jimillar kashe batir na kasar Sin a shekarar 2020 ya kai tan kusan tan 200,000.Ana sa ran wannan adadi zai karu zuwa kusan tan miliyan daya nan da shekarar 2025.

Tianfeng Securities a baya ya nuna cewa farkon sabon batirin makamashi a kasuwa ya fara shiga lokacin ritaya.An yi kiyasin cewa jimillar jita-jitar batirin wutar lantarki zai kai tan miliyan 1.16 nan da shekarar 2024. Donghai Securities ya kuma yi hasashen cewa kasuwar sake sarrafa batir za ta kai biliyan 107.43 nan da shekarar 2030.

Dangane da hauhawar farashin lithium da rashin tabbas na farashin lithium, a cewar binciken, a halin da ake ciki yanzu, halin saye da kamfanonin sake yin amfani da su, shi ne siyan ƙaramin adadin, kula da abin da ake buƙata, da kuma adana kayan da ake samarwa a cikin rabin rabin. wata zuwa wata.

Dangane da gishirin cobalt, kamar yadda binciken ya nuna, cobalt sulfate ya kasance cikin yanayi na juye-juye kwanan nan.Ta fuskar gishirin cobalt a halin yanzu, babbar matsalar da kamfanonin sake amfani da su ke fuskanta ita ce wahalar watsa farashi.Dangane da hauhawar farashin kayayyakin gishiri na cobalt na kamfanonin sake amfani da su, buƙatun masana'antar ternary precursor na ƙasa don cobalt sulfate ba shi da ƙarfi kamar lithium carbonate, masana'antun ƙasa gabaɗaya suna karɓar farashin cobalt sulfate bayan haɓaka ya yi ƙasa, kuma daga sama. Kamfanonin sake yin amfani da su ba su da kyakkyawan fata game da watsa farashin bayan hauhawar farashin gishirin cobalt.

Kuma a wani lokaci da ya wuce, tashin hankali na farashin nickel ya sa kamfanonin sake yin amfani da su sun dakatar da siyan siyar da raye-raye, wanda ya yi tasiri sosai kan farashin sake yin amfani da su.Domin shawo kan hauhawar irin wannan farashin da bai dace ba, masana'antun sake yin amfani da su a wancan lokacin sun zaɓi halin jira da gani na ɗan lokaci kuma sun shirya shirya shirin siyan bayan farashin nickel ya faɗi ga ƙima.


Lokacin aikawa: Afrilu-18-2022